New draw strategy and the first pick

As the name of this blog suggests, I have started my serious betting carrier with picking draws. I got bored after the month or two, I don´t have overall statistics and 99 % of betting data was lost when I mistakenly deleted it from my old blog site. Anyway, draws are my only stable point. I mean: I can achieve big losing rate with classical AH or O/U picks and big losing rate with draws, but I don´t think my longest serie without win picking X´s at 3 or higher was not significantly longer than my black periods, documented on BetRush, where I have losses on wide range of picks with odds under 2 and some outsider backings too... I mean the only way I can stay calm, concentrated and feeling positively is picking draws... There may be very long runs of losing picks, long periods without the profit, but I am confident to pick the games with enough accuracy to end every month at least in the neutral zone...

Lazio - Juventus X @ 3.51, Pinnacle
Last eight matches between these two sides ended with three draws and five wins by one goal.
Last thirteen respective games ended with U3,5 goals, four draws and seven wind by one goal.
Juventus played tight away matches with all top Serie A sides this season.
Lazio played tight matches with all of them too, except 0:2 loss against Fiorentina (surely could take more out of this game).
Lazio´s defense is depleted with four significant absences, Lulic is injured too. But Juve also not fully strong: Chiellini, Giovinco and maybe also Marchisio out.
Both teams, especially Lazio, are in the situation, where win is not unwelcomed, but none of the two need to really "win or die", while draw against tough opponent would let Juve leading Serie A by nine points and Lazio staying in the top five with six rounds to go. 

Sunday´s review

Well, finally we have two winners from today - Jablonec showed clearly dominating performance and brought me winner on 1X2, Teplice worked until the end and their late goal proved +1,5 handicap as a valuable pick. Tomorrow, it´s Brno to beat Jihlava, quite an old pick, but I haven´t forgotten and will be watching the game of my underdog favorite.
Record will be updated tomorrow, I think it depends just on that single match whether it will be positive or negative total yield, however, still just after the few picks.
First day of my "system" resulted into quite a significant loss of almost four points on 28-point investment. But this means completely nothing, not because that system is in its very beginning, but because today just proved me right to go completely different way in developing it.
I may, really may post alpha-bet testing picks in the end of the week, but as I expect, everything will look valuable in the start and all the process will be just to find that real amount of valuable picks and to separate them from the rest...
Good night!

New System

Seven losers in a row with today´s O1.5 fourfold extremely unexpectedly for me dying at 1:0 away win of Liberec in Ostrava. Check my picks for tomorrow below, it´s Jablonec to win and Teplice to lose by one goal, draw or win :) (+1.5 handicap).
I have also started my work on new system, which I will be testing tomorrow and all the april and in the end of the month, I will post detailed results.
Work on that system may take me a lot of time so posting will be a bit reduced, but I think I will be still covering the Czech league and if everything goes well, we will have much more picks after the system coming out for its public trial in the end of the season..

Hot late O1.5 fourfold

OK, I stated I don´t like accumulators previously and my O1.5 double failed (Slavia  Dukla was clearly underish game and I felt it from the begging; the statistics were "good", but with so many U2,5´s and respective record, it was a terrible pick) in the first match, but yeah, I just feel this selection is much better and odds are higher:

O1.5 fourfold 
Ostrava - Liberec, Reading - Southampton, Real - Levante, Barca - Mallorca
Pays 2.033 in Marathon, good odds in Expekt too
stake 4/5

Ostrava at home with one under in nine matches (3,11 per game), Liberec away with 2/11 (2,72 per game). Four out of five previous meetings ended with 3,5+ goals. Defender Vomáčka is suspended for Ostrava, another regular def Starý is injured. Both Ostrava and Liberec have attacks able to score with Baroš, Fantiš and Kukec being main threats in Ostrava and Liberec with their great attacking duo Delarge (quick Congolese striker) and Štajner (scorer of 100 career goals) plus Šural scoring 6 goals in 16 games this season.
Both teams are in the top 5 of the overish table. Both teams in good mood, losing just one game during the five spring rounds. The pitch was suffering due to bad weather, but if this game goes on, it will go over 1,5!
Reading - Southampton: you all know, all the stats available speak clearly for over and personally I expect at least three goals and maybe this would be a good O4,5 shot.
Real - Levante: Levante is big defensive side and this is definitely the weakest part of my selection as all other teams involved are overish, but you know - Real at home, hard hard to imagine U1.5.
Barca - Mallorca: two overish sides, Barca at home, no more comments

Another three losers today!

You know what I really hate (except the copying of picks and previews)? I hate especially paid services, which are full of self-presentation and big statements like "Five Winners In a Row Now! Quite usual for our members!" Then when they lose, you accidentally feel like they have also forgotten how to type or that they are no longer sport tipsters, since their tweets and posts are about something completely different.
However, there are two important factors to look for instantly when you have a losing streak: 1, Is it due to my mistake? Was I just lucky previously? 2, Is it "bad luck", just five losers in a row after the twelve winners in a row, adding up great overall profit? In the first case (you never know exactly, like you will never know, which one of your losers was a value pick and which one wasn´t), you have to confess and continue in the process of picking better and better. In the second case: why don´t you want to know, that you are having high ROI with few ups-and-down periods? Betting is no praying. I am happy when my pick wins in the 93rd minute, but that doesn´t mean I don´t want to know, that I was lucky and previous 92 minutes may well were predicted wrongly, which gives me a chance to improve!
I am not the one with long and consistent profit. Posting my picks publically motivates me further and I like mentioning positive results, but I feel even worse when I have a losing day and I am not able to even say the truth.
The truth is that for various reasons this site is now running 0-5. We had a bit of unluck with red card against Lazio, well analyzed, but completely wrongly predicted Tottenham - Basel game, well analysed and predicted double loser in České Budějovice - Příbram and completely wrongly analyzed Slavia - Dukla game - ending with fourth 0:0 in a row and leaving my O1.5 death. I have better picks for next days, I believe, and i am looking forward to having even better ones next week!

Jablonec - Slovácko pick

Another pick from the Czech top league weekend´s action. Just two matches I am unsure about remains without my prediction and maybe it will stay like this...

Jablonec - Slovácko
04/07, 15:00 CET
Jablonec to win @ 1.75, Marathon

Nothing surprising, nothing extraordinary, but one regular bet not to miss. Logic is pretty simple in this case: Jablonec need to win in their hunt for the top 3 placing and playing at home against Slovácko it won´t be easy, on the other hand they would be surely unsatisfied with one point and it´s hard to imagine Slovácko being better side in this game. H2H and recent form just confirm these thoughts and I think there´s nothing more to say from me, things are pretty simple and my idea is not to speculate whether the probability of home win is 66 % or 72 % or so. This is just a common sense "to win" pick, maybe good double addition to some low-odds value you will find.. Stake 3/5.

Records & Running picks

Bad dramatic day, which let me hope in two winners, but ended with both bids losing. Tottenham was overshooted by 17-10 with Basel proving much improved level of consistency; 2:2 draw. Benfica got an early goal, but Portuguese side was not the one to surprise negatively - 3:1 win. Lazio with red card and two goals conceded in the final 15 minutes - hard job awaiting in the 2nd leg. Finally my private pick and recommended external preview Chelsea to play under 2,5 with Kazan and Russian side showing the worst appearance in the spring part of the season: 3:1 and Chelsea is turning less and less black horse as Benitez´s chance to win a trophy are raising.
My record is down at 103,26 % of ROI. However, one day is an extremely tiny period in bettor´s life. We have many picks waiting for confirmation by reality, here is a full list put in chronological order:

České Budějovice to draw with Příbram at 3.40, Marathon + BTTS at evens, William Hill
Slavia Prague - Dukla Prague & Baník Ostrava - Slovan liberec O1.5 double @ 1.82,  BetVictor
Plzen - Teplice   Teplice +1,5 @ 2,10, 12BET
Vysočina Jihlava - Zbrojovka Brno  Brno to win @ 3,80, Marathon
Istanbul to host the 2020 Olympics @ 3.00, Paddy Power

All write-ups can be found in the blog´s history.

Two new Czech picks

Weekend action is closing in with Czech league having matches all the way from friday to monday. Especially in perspective of saturday´s Ostrava - Liberec, half of my O1.5 double, I pray for acceptable weather; eastern parts of the Czechia are covered with snow and it´s not just an april joke. Thanks God, I can do also more safe picks with better odds on game being played in the planned term. I rate these two very low, somewhere at 1.05.

České Budějovice - Příbram
04/05, 18:00 CET
Draw @ 3.40, Marathon and BTTS @ 2.00, William Hill
stake 2/5 & 2/5

16th České Budějovice will welcome 14th Příbram in a match not to be lost. The importance of the game is well reflected in the fact, that players will pay full price of all tickets "sold", so spectators don´t have to pay. "If you want to punish them, just come and support us," said jokingly Budějovice´s marketing chief. But during the game, all jokes will be forgiven, because losing this match would leave home side six points behind staying in the league with eight rounds to go. It´s not an easy task they are facing.
Příbram is on a 2-1-1 run, which took them up from the last place they occupied. Their former coach Marko tought them to play football and new coach Straka added spirit and determination. Midfielder Aziz, who came from Kuwait, is a revelation of the recent rounds. National team player with physical proportions similar to Messi can easily cause shock also to České Budějovice, Czech teams simply can´t defend such players, all Plzen´s success was build on playing technically and quickly (Petržela, now player of Augsburg, played this way and I really miss him). Interestingly, Příbram is having in squad Krbeček, Wagner and Trapp. Krbeček and Wagner played early in their carrier in Plzen, which played similar style of football long years before becoming internationally known, and Wagner was trying his luck in Plzen´s squad during the last season, but after playing just as a substitute player came back to Příbram. No surprise, coach Marko always wanted to play football and Příbram, however of recording the most U1,5´s (9/21) in the Czech league, is a team created to gain points actively. The reason why they are so low in the table is, that at least under Marko, they were unable to practice it successfully. Away appearances are quite a big problem so far. After six losses in a row, including e. g. out-of-form Brno, three of them 0:1 and 1:6 in Olomouc, previous 1:0 win in Slovácko gives team needed hope, but it makes bets on away side unsure investion.
As I said this is the game not to be lost for both teams. And honestly, home team should go for win in order to bridge the point gap to Příbram and in order to satisfy fans. If there is a goal, the probability of second one coming sooner or later on the opposite side is high. I am sure that home team have to (classical Czech strategy: "It will be a fighting game.") and away team can more than before. My primary pick is BTTS, my secondary pick is draw, a bit of insurance for 0:0, but it can be also 3:3  - my last two draw picks ended with 3:3 and 3:2. 2/5 BTTS @ 2.00, William Hill, 2/5 draw @ 3.40 Marathon.

Plzen - Teplice 
04/07, 16:00 CET
Teplice +1,5 @ 2.10, 12BET
stake 3/5

It´s always risky to bet against Plzen (I used to call them "Pilsen" since the original Czech name Plzeň has that weird "ň", but I see it´s way easier to use the most internationally known name), while they play at home, and it seems even more risky, when you are backing team like Teplice (0-3-3 form, second from the bottom, three 2- or more goal losses). And I do agree, this is not a safe choice. However, if I have to say where the value should be, I´m saying it´s on Teplice +1,5.
Usually, I have only words of shame for Teplice. They are boring, unable to press opponent and still you can hardly expect them leaving the first league and letting some more creative team like Bohemians Prague playing instead of them. But Plzen can be an ideal opponent.
Viktoria needs victory and they need just a victory. Not a beautiful football, just to get on the wave again. Plzen have two losses in a row, pretty uncommon for this team. But not only results. I feel it also from the game. Since overcoming Napoli with sensational 5:0 on aggregate, it´s not that Plzen - including captain Horvath, key figure - in the top form . 3:1 in Brno, but not so convincing with decisive goals in 75th and 90th minute. Then 1:1 at home to Ostrava, problems with finishing actions, of course big difference in playing on the opponent´s half and Plzen could win. After that Fenerbahce - Turks took Plzen seriously and unlike Napoli, they´ve found the way Plzen is beatable. 2:0 win in Mladá Boleslav (5th), good result in quite an open game with two red cards. 1:1 in Istanbul, not that energy I hoped to see. 4:0 to Dukla Prague, which missed a penalty kick and played 89 minutes in ten players. And then, after 1:0 cup win against Hradec without NT players, losses with Sparta (just like Fenerbahce, they knew what to play and scored in the right moment) and Jablonec. They really need to win matches like this upcoming and I think they can get stressed without a quick opener.
Teplice are in bad position, but this is the last match they would feel pressure in. They know that they have to give it real maximum and every point gained, every goal not conceded will be a win for them. If there is something Teplice can do sometimes, that thing are counter attacks. Especially Litsingi, winter newcomer, is a quick, technical player, that can be dangerous and make final pass. Key striker Mahmutovič should be fit again, another new midfield acquisition, good Slovak player Janiš, may appear in the starting eleven too. Teplice showed that they can trouble big favorite already in Northbohemian derby against Jablonec (0:0). Also september´s clash with Plzen resulted in division of points, 1:1.
Under the concrete conditions, this match will test Plzen, especially their morale power, very strongly and they may suffer. +1,5 handicap at 2.1 is something I want to try. Once again a bit of wondering whether to choose 2 or 3/5 stake, but it will be 3/5 @ 2.10, 12BET.

UEL double

We have three clear-cut favorites in today´s Europa league matches: Benfica, Chelsea and Tottenham. As long as I am not trying to produce profit acca way ("profiting" on 4+ folds is great for gamblers, but I believe really few professional tipsters can long-term profit on them), I just want to try one with odds being pretty acceptable.

Tottenham (-0,75) to beat Basel and Benfica to beat Newcastle
odds 2.22, Marathon

Against Rubin´s low-conceding side and with Chelsea being Chelsea, I don´t see this match as a great 1X2 accumulator choice. It´s an under for me, check bellow. But the other two favorites are the ones that interest me. Basel is a team with few incredible results like getting 4/6 points against ManU and effectively relegating them from the Champions league. Also overcoming Dnipro in previous round was a surprise for me. Now, starting away on Tottenham´s ground, these guys should be more concentrated on getting something better than 0:7, huge reality check that ended their last-season dream after winning 1:0 at home against Bayern Munich, than to go for X2. Villas-Boas know all these stories and taking Basel seriously, he must be aware of them. Still he knows where the quality stands and reaching a two-goal win should be his target, because shit happens too often in Basel, to be short :) Spurs are simply too good and too wise not to win this and I fancy -0,75 handicap to get maximum out of it.
Benfica is having a 15:1 score in their last three league games and however of Newcastle´s extraordinary draw away to Anzhi, I don´t see them keeping null today. Benfica´s aim is to win this competition. With Newcastle not having a full-strength squad available, the Portuguese side have to prove its quality and win.
I was thinking about 2/5 stake, taking this just as a fun pick, but I seriously think this will come in. Marathon offers limit acceptable for most punters on 1X2 (cca 500 €), -0,75 is much more secured, so it may require re-betting or combining with another bookie. 3/5 recommendation
(If you catch Chelsea - Benfica special somewhere else, 2.55 for Benfica´s win in Marathon would be a great choice for me , unless the impossible limit)

Featured: Chelsea - Kazan pick

Especially in the picking competitions, there are always few tipsters living just or mainly from work of others. There´s nothing easier than to read few previews and write something similar to the one that interested you the most. I really don´t like this and I will never ever post copied pick there or in a competition and present it as my own. Every single pick I post here presents my original (and sometimes mistaken or incomplete, 99 % probable) thoughts based on watching matches and researching. On the other hand, I want the picks I like to be known, not only my own picks. That´s why I will, time to time, maybe every few days, post there featured picks from other free tipsters (I pay for some picks too, but that´s not the way I want to go), which present good value in my opinion.
We are starting with the Chelsea - Kazan pick made by r0na1dinh0 at BetRush. Check his preview presenting Under 0,5 as a great long-shot option HERE. Personally, I took U2,5 @ 1,89, Marathon (but I emphasize: this pick won´t be counted to my statistics there; I just recommend you to follow it)

Record updated

My record, still pretty short with just nine picks from eight games, stays positive after today´s matches of the Czech cup: Sparta won crazy second half in the attractive leveled game in Olomouc 4:2 with six goals in less than 30 minutes, letting down my DNB1 pick. Both teams, especially Sparta, used stronger squads than I expected, but to be honest, I could expect over with lower concentration at defense in the cup game. Still other two matches satisfied me. Pilsen also used strong squad, but confirmed shaky form and lost 1:2 to Jablonec, my DNB choice. Even being too coy, I also picked two winners from the Liberec - Teplice game. Initial -0,5 pick with -0,75 and higher stake added later after the confirmation of line-ups came home after the expected dominance of Liberec and 2:0 win. I really should have been more brave, maybe someone read my info and used it that way - I hope so.. Few opportunities, which could have been used better, but ROI is over 126 % (check HERE) and we are continuing with two picks running and more to follow.

UEL: Fenerbahce - Lazio pick

Fenerbahce Istanbul - Lazio Roma
04/04, 21:05 CET
Lazio +0,25 @ 2.00, 188BET

I have to confess that I don´t follow Lazio´s matches regularly and Fenerbahce is a team I watched only in two round of 16´s matches against Pilsen. But I still believe I am able to get an edge here.
Lazio is having perspective of the important league game against AS Roma coming on monday, but also of playing the second leg without spectators with home advantage being reduced. They will use "the strongest possible" line-up, maybe even with Klose involved, but Kozák is in great form anyway, being the Europa league´s best scorer. The Italian team is unbeaten in 12 UEL matches.
I heard voices from Turkey that Fenerbahce is a very strong side, I heard that before the clash with Pilsen and to be honest, neither of sides really impressed me (except few quick counters) and with Pilsen playing what they really can, Fenerbahce could be already out of the competition. Unlike the previous round, Turkish side will benefit from presence of spectators, the ban is over. But that´s all. Fenerbahce have practically all impressive results in this season´s Europa league from away grounds - wins in Marseille, Moenchengladbach and Pilsen are pretty good. At home that counts wins over Limassol and ten-men BATE (still just 1:0), draw to Marseille and Pilsen (without spectators) and loss in the mixed squads´ game against Moenchengladbach. Of course, they have solid players like Sow, Stoch, Kuyt, Topal, Baroni, Meireles.. But I clearly don´t expect them winning there with the pressure to create this game mostly on their arms and Lazio´s quick transition to the attack.
It´s surprising for me to have Lazio +0,25 as a slight outsider, I see them getting a draw out of this clash with full win as possible bonus. Stake 3/5

Over 1,5 friday/saturday double

Slavia Prague - Dukla Prague and Baník Ostrava - Slovan Liberec games
to see over 1,5 goals 
odds 1.82 e. g. with BetVictor
(You may get slightly better price with LEON Bets when they open O1,5 for Ostrava - Liberec..)
 
Dukla records just one U1,5 in this season´s ten away matches (2,9 goals per game), Slavia two in ten home games (2,8 goals per game). Slavia´s captain and top scorer Karol Kisel makes comeback after the card ban. Three recent matches of these two sides ended with 0:0, that´s the only negative statistic to mention in this preview, but I just can´t see this incredible trend continuing. Both teams are capable of scoring with Dukla recently strengthen by Spanish youngster Néstor Albiach.
Ostrava at home with one under in nine matches (3,11 per game), Liberec away with 2/11 (2,72 per game). Four out of five previous meetings ended with 3,5+ goals. Defender Vomáčka is suspended for Ostrava, another regular def Starý is injured. Both Ostrava and Liberec have attacks able to score with Baroš, Fantiš and Kukec being main threats in Ostrava and Liberec with their great attacking duo Delarge (quick Congolese striker) and Štajner (scorer of 100 career goals) plus Šural scoring 6 goals in 16 games this season.
Except eleventh Slavia, three other teams involved are in the top 5 of the overish table. Dukla, Liberec and Slavia also sit from 6th to 8th spot, ideal middle of the table, even Slavia should play with free mind now, having seven points and six lower positioned teams between them and the relegation zone. All four teams in good mood, losing just one game during the five spring rounds.
Simply adding up the balances mentioned, you are getting 34/40 (85 %) of games played this season over 1,5 with pretty solid odds. Stake 4/5.

Olomouc - Sparta cup pick

I haven´t expected this, but I will have a pick on the third of four Czech league cup games this week as the team news are positive.

Sigma Olomouc - Sparta Prague (Praha)
04/03, 18:00 CET
Sigma +0 @ 2, 12Bet / Dafa

Two top teams, similar game to Jablonec - Pilsen and also the pick and odds are practically the same. Olomouc want to succeed in the first leg at home, having great spring form, like in Jablonec´s case, they are motivated by the recent unsatisfying result, 0:1 loss in Liberec and a bit disappointing appearance. "Sparta is one of the best Czech clubs, so we can´t talk about too many rotations," confirmed the coach Pivarník. "We want to use some substitute players... There are important league games ahead of us," says the assistant coach Jílek from Sparta, adding that they have few slight injuries among the regulars. Like in the Jablonec - Pilsen clash, we have more motivated home side with fewer players to be rested and odds slightly favorizing the away team. Recent cup form on the home side too, 3-1-0 and 10:3 versus Sparta´s three 1:1 draws... Another 3/5 stake for me.

Liberec - Teplice cup pick

UPDATE: Liberec will use strong squad with the objective of winning the cup and qualifying for the Europa league. Odds are logically dropping, limits in Marathon (1@1.72) are brutal. My recommendation is Liberec -0,75 @ 1.88, BetVictor, I was stupid not to anticipate this more brightly..

Liberec - Teplice
04/03, 18:00 CET
Liberec to win @ 1.70
 
I was wondering for quite a long time whether there still remains some value in picking Liberec after the initial drop. Well, I am not sure, but there should be quite a significant difference so why not.
Teplice are in terrible mood sitting second from the bottom in the league table. Avoiding relegation is a priority and we can expect few rotations with tough fight in Pilsen just four days after this match, coach Ščasný confirmed this in the press conference after the previous league round. Teplice are quite a boring side for quite a long time (maybe with Fenin and Džeko it was a bit better), they play defensively, grabbing three draws and two losses (1:3 in Příbram, 0:4 at home against Slovácko, really terrible ones) in the league this spring.
On the other hand, Liberec is one of my favorite teams, having solid offense and also their results are much better than Teplice have. They have a match against Ostrava coming in three days after the cup, so there may be some rotations too, but probably not more than in Teplice´s squad. This is a two-legged battle once again, so I assume that the teams will concentrate mostly at their home matches. Liberec is a favorite to win this for sure, but it can be easily just one-goal win if Teplice will keep their attention during thee whole game. 1.70 for home win is nothing extraordinary, but it´s the only sensible choice for me. It´s hard to guess the level of Teplice´s concentration and concrete players to be rested. For example Liberec without Delarge and Štajner in attack would be a lot different team for me. So it´s hard to responsibly take something like EH -1: draw or -1,5 AH with high odds. 2,5/5 stake on Liberec to win this @ 1.70, Bet365. I will try to get concrete line-up ASAP and IfP. Then it can be great pick for combos or asian handicaps with higher recommended stake..

Two new Czech shots

I ma really loving this: both Europe and South America running every day with several top competitions. Monday´s La Liga evening was great, even losing a bit on Granada +0,75. And ahead of us is tuesday with the Champions league and Copa libertadores! But I am concentrating my betting abilities on the environment, which is the most common for me, with another two Czech picks, one from the cup and one longer league shot.

FK Jablonec - Viktoria Pilsen (Plzeň)
Česká pošta Cup (Czech national cup)
04/03 16:30 CET
FK Jablonec + 0 @ 2.07

National cups are always a bit less predictable than league, but sometimes you can read the specificity of the clubs´ approaches well and benefit from that. I will try it with Jablonec - Pilsen qaurter-finals game.
Both teams are members of the top four in the current league table with Pilsen few points ahead of course. However, in this season´s cup matches the records are 4-0-0 and 21:1 for Jablonec and 2-0-1 5:4 for Pilsen. Jablonec benefits a bit from starting round lower, but that was actually their "worst" win, 3:0 away against the top 3rd league side Loko Vltavín. ... The rest of the preview HERE.

Vysočina Jihlava - Zbrojovka Brno
Gambrinus liga (Czech league)
04/08 18:00 CET
Brno to win @ 3.80 (or safer Brno DNB 2.66)

One early Czech league pick,  I just don´t want to wait for the odds dopping down. Maybe with more bookies offering this match, there will be also better offers and who knows, maybe other punters will use another logic than me, but I feel safe about this:
I was with Brno in the previous round where they lost 1:3 at home to the poor Hradec Králové´s side. Looking at this result and all their bad recent results, you may say that they have no chance to beat a higher placed team. With nine rounds to be played Brno are just three points above the telegation zone. There are five teams with the same or less points ... The rest is HERE.

Today´s betting options

Czech match is canceled, so I am concentrating my attention to Spain and England. My thoughts are Betis to win against Getafe at (2.00 Interwetten, 1.91 Paddy, 888, Blue Square and WillHill), Granada to have more chances than odds suggest in Bilbao, but my only real pick of the day is Fulham to draw with QPR. Here is a short preview. I suggest mid/lower stake, for my record here I will rate it as 2/5, mostly because I do not concentrate on English football at all in recent weeks...

Good & Bad news

The bad news is that today´s match between Ostrava and Jihlava, my hot favorite for home win with -0,75 handicap at awesome odds, was canceled due to bad pitch condition (cold weather, snow...). I am really disappointed about this.
The good one is that I have had positive weekend in overall and also talking about my blog picks. Out of four selections, two came home, with negatively surprising duel of Plzeň and Sparta and also Brno, which was once again unable to get maximum possible - they surely could at least draw with Hradec and give m half stake back.. But we are still at ROI of 134,31 % thanks to pleasing Mallorca - La Coruna clash and impressive 3:3 draw, meaning one point for Příbram and Jablonec.
You can check my short record here. I hope to keep it positive with another picks coming soon.

Sunday picks

I was having really extraordinary saturday even missing a lot more of value, which was around. I think I am not the only one, who benefited from that busy schedule full of interesting matches. All in all, I have became self-confident once again and till next losing streak (hopefully long way ahead of me) I will listen to my intuition.
I have and I will have a lot of picks also for sunday, but to mention just clearly my own production, it´s Brno to win against Hradec Králové in the Czech Gambrinus liga (using -0,25 handicap, still around evens; preview is to be found here).
I also feel that Mallorca - Deportivo game may have great overish potential. 2.10 in Ladbrokes and StanJames, typical lazy bookies, seems simply too much for over 2,5. La Coruna have recently improved defensive results averaging just one goal conceded in the last four league rounds, two of them against Barca and Real. I do completely understand that this, together with poor attack, can present La Coruna as an underish side. But... Real and Barca with their minds and powers caught in the Champions league (another impressive showings yesterday with Barca being one of my few losers) can not be taken seriously. Celta Vigo spending an hour + in ten players: that´s another one not to interest us too much. And Rayo Vallecano with their impressive 1-1-4 run and playing away, that´s the fourth team. Throughout the season Mallorca showed few great attractive performances and also few matches of the "pain to watch" category. But just mentioning the fact that they have conceded only four less goals than Depor, this reveals them as anything but 0:0 favorite. The clocks are ticking, time to fight for La Liga, especially La Coruna really should show all the cards they have and continuing their great red cards record too, they could give away one easy goal to Mallorca. Choosing the over I will pray for an early opener, being calm once it is scored..

Olympic games 2020 host pick

The longest shot I can imagine - I am bringing you bet, which will be decided in september 2013, while the event itself is set to run in 2020. But this time waiting can easily pay out.
We have three candidate cities remaining in the fight with depressed Madrid (both economically and due to their unseccessfull recent olympic effort) and two determined favorites, Istanbul and Tokyo. For bookmakers, Istanbul is quite a clear underdog with odds around 3 (3 in Coral, Paddy and bet-at-home), while Tokyo rates comfortably under 1.75. I think that bookies should hope that not many people will see this opportunity, because it´s HUGE in my opinion. Just look at GamesBids.com, the deepest specialist in this topic. They rate Istanbul as a slight favorite and they have been rating them higher than Tokyo long months back. Japan is really determined to get another olympic games. There is a strong rising public support over 75 % with Toyota being the most recent and pretty strong partner of the bid. But there is no reason to doubt about Istanbul´s candidature too! Turks are great nationalists and the games have consistent support from the country´s top politicians including the prime minister, who promoted Istanbul during the 2012 olympics, being present in London; he will also attend in Buenos Aires,where the september decisive ceremony will be held. The organizing team has impressed the IOC delegation during its recent visit to Istanbul; the infrastructure for the games is already being made. Turkey hosted both winter (2011) and summer (2005) universiade and year ago also the first major athletics competition on its soil with the indoor worlds 2012.

I see great value in picking Istanbul @ 3 to host the Olympic games 2020!

Two more Czech picks

I´ve analysed also the three remaining matches of the Czech first league, round 21.

Brno - Hradec Králové - sunday, 3 PM CET - Two bottom sides, but Brno slightly better in every aspect. Home with -0,25 handicap @ 1.98
Teplice - Slavia Prague - sunday, 6:05 PM CET - Struggling home side, but Teplice are not generally so weak team and they have to succeed somehow and really need points. Slavia would be 0 or -0,25 favorite for me, but they will miss their captain Kisel. Under is more likely, but BTTS and potentially also over are not unimaginable.. No bet for me
Ostrava - Jihlava - monday, 4 PM CET - Home side by some distance superior to away side IMO, -0,75 handicap @ 2.14

Once again, previews can be found at BetRush

Saturday Gambrinus liga picks

After the three opening matches today - 4:0 win of in-form Dukla Prague at home against the strugglers from České Budějovice, highly needed 2:0 win of Mladá Boleslav, which still dreams about the European cups, against Slovácko, and another home win of Liberec, 1:0 against Olomouc in this attractive to-be-tight duel - we have another two games tomorrow and both interest me from the betting view.

Příbram - Jablonec - starting at 4 PM CET, I expect tight underish game. My picks are draw and under 2,5 with logical correct score choices 0:0 and 1:1.
Sparta - Plzeň - starting at 8:15 PM CET, this is the game of this spring. I see this being great football with over at great odds.
You can check previews for both matches at BetRush.

UCL 03/05

One pick that I really like today: Dortmund - Real X - it´s a special offer, not every bookie will offer you this, but @ around 4, it´s great value for me for very simple reasons: Shakhtar is not a weak team and Real is extremely strong, motivated and confident. The only thing to fear is that the game played in Germany may be more high-scoring, that´s why only X for me..

Weekend elite picks

I will post there the best values I have found for the weekend matches so far:

Evian - Montpellier over 2.5 2.46 Mararthon (2.43 Pinnacle) PREVIEW
Braga - Guimaraes over 3 2.24 Marathon PREVIEW
Schalke - Dusseldorf EH -1 (X) 3.5 Bet 365 (3.7 Nordic) - classical EH -1 X game in my opinion!
Troyes - Bastia over 2.5 2.11 Pinnacle (2.12 IAS)
Suggestion: Porto - Rio Ave 2(+1,5)
- Porto without Managala and Sandro (regular defenders), UCL in the heads, Rio Ave fighting to stay high in the table

SUNDAY

Atletico - Espanyol 2 10.00 bet-at-home ... gone! But you can still check this preview.
Celta - Granada - all bets against Celta, I´ve posted a preview for X.

Furth - Leverkusen EH +2 X - PREVIEW
Suggestion: Inter - AC Milan 1 - odds near to 4 seems simply too high for me, even not being something especially unusual. ACM was great against Barca, but this is another match.

Europa League 02/21

Potential draws:

Genk - Stuttgart KO
Olympiakos-Levante KO
Plzeň-Napoli KO
Benfica-Leverkusen KO

EH -1 X potentials:

Bordeaux-Kyiv OK
Lazio-Moenchengladbach KO
Hannover-Anzhi KO

Other picks:

Liverpool-Zenit 1 (-1) OKPREVIEW
Chelsea-Sparta EH -2 X (fun pick) KO

Catastrophic results, I´ve got to get SERIOUS again, especially missing Lyon - Tottenham was STUPID..

Weekend draw set, part 1

 I have came through the weekend matches of the English Premier League and Spanish Primera Division. To be honest, I like La Liga 100 % more currently and for me, southern leagues are kinda more predictable, you can see really impressive trends in Spain or Italy, while England is a bit like Australia - quick, energetic, aggressive action, but nothing steady. Benefit of Premier League is really high accessibility of injury info, although injuries are a bit overrated factor in predicting football, unless it´s really key player (and you won´t get this information statistically, you just have to know the club). Anyway, here is my first set - two wins needed to pay this out:

Celta Vigo - Granada X
Newcastle - Southampton EH -1 X
Reading - Wigan EH -1 X KO
Norwich - Everton X KO
WBA - Sunderland EH -1 X OK
Mallorca - Getafe EH -1 X KO
Rayo Vallecano - Valladolid ht/ft X-1

Champions league 02/19

My picks for tuesday:

Arsenal - Bayern No bet
Porto - Malaga No bet

The best choices IMO :)