As the name of this blog suggests, I have started my serious betting carrier with picking draws. I got bored after the month or two, I don´t have overall statistics and 99 % of betting data was lost when I mistakenly deleted it from my old blog site. Anyway, draws are my only stable point. I mean: I can achieve big losing rate with classical AH or O/U picks and big losing rate with draws, but I don´t think my longest serie without win picking X´s at 3 or higher was not significantly longer than my black periods, documented on BetRush, where I have losses on wide range of picks with odds under 2 and some outsider backings too... I mean the only way I can stay calm, concentrated and feeling positively is picking draws... There may be very long runs of losing picks, long periods without the profit, but I am confident to pick the games with enough accuracy to end every month at least in the neutral zone...
Lazio - Juventus X @ 3.51, Pinnacle
Last eight matches between these two sides ended with three draws and five wins by one goal.
Last thirteen respective games ended with U3,5 goals, four draws and seven wind by one goal.
Juventus played tight away matches with all top Serie A sides this season.
Lazio played tight matches with all of them too, except 0:2 loss against Fiorentina (surely could take more out of this game).
Lazio´s defense is depleted with four significant absences, Lulic is injured too. But Juve also not fully strong: Chiellini, Giovinco and maybe also Marchisio out.
Both teams, especially Lazio, are in the situation, where win is not unwelcomed, but none of the two need to really "win or die", while draw against tough opponent would let Juve leading Serie A by nine points and Lazio staying in the top five with six rounds to go.
pondělí 15. dubna 2013
neděle 7. dubna 2013
Sunday´s review
Well, finally we have two winners from today - Jablonec showed clearly dominating performance and brought me winner on 1X2, Teplice worked until the end and their late goal proved +1,5 handicap as a valuable pick. Tomorrow, it´s Brno to beat Jihlava, quite an old pick, but I haven´t forgotten and will be watching the game of my underdog favorite.
Record will be updated tomorrow, I think it depends just on that single match whether it will be positive or negative total yield, however, still just after the few picks.
First day of my "system" resulted into quite a significant loss of almost four points on 28-point investment. But this means completely nothing, not because that system is in its very beginning, but because today just proved me right to go completely different way in developing it.
I may, really may post alpha-bet testing picks in the end of the week, but as I expect, everything will look valuable in the start and all the process will be just to find that real amount of valuable picks and to separate them from the rest...
Good night!
Record will be updated tomorrow, I think it depends just on that single match whether it will be positive or negative total yield, however, still just after the few picks.
First day of my "system" resulted into quite a significant loss of almost four points on 28-point investment. But this means completely nothing, not because that system is in its very beginning, but because today just proved me right to go completely different way in developing it.
I may, really may post alpha-bet testing picks in the end of the week, but as I expect, everything will look valuable in the start and all the process will be just to find that real amount of valuable picks and to separate them from the rest...
Good night!
sobota 6. dubna 2013
New System
Seven losers in a row with today´s O1.5 fourfold extremely unexpectedly for me dying at 1:0 away win of Liberec in Ostrava. Check my picks for tomorrow below, it´s Jablonec to win and Teplice to lose by one goal, draw or win :) (+1.5 handicap).
I have also started my work on new system, which I will be testing tomorrow and all the april and in the end of the month, I will post detailed results.
Work on that system may take me a lot of time so posting will be a bit reduced, but I think I will be still covering the Czech league and if everything goes well, we will have much more picks after the system coming out for its public trial in the end of the season..
I have also started my work on new system, which I will be testing tomorrow and all the april and in the end of the month, I will post detailed results.
Work on that system may take me a lot of time so posting will be a bit reduced, but I think I will be still covering the Czech league and if everything goes well, we will have much more picks after the system coming out for its public trial in the end of the season..
Hot late O1.5 fourfold
OK, I stated I don´t like accumulators previously and my O1.5 double failed (Slavia Dukla was clearly underish game and I felt it from the begging; the statistics were "good", but with so many U2,5´s and respective record, it was a terrible pick) in the first match, but yeah, I just feel this selection is much better and odds are higher:
O1.5 fourfold
Ostrava - Liberec, Reading - Southampton, Real - Levante, Barca - Mallorca
Pays 2.033 in Marathon, good odds in Expekt too
stake 4/5
Ostrava at home with one under in nine matches (3,11 per game), Liberec away with 2/11 (2,72 per game). Four out of five previous meetings ended with 3,5+ goals. Defender Vomáčka is suspended for Ostrava, another regular def Starý is injured. Both Ostrava and Liberec have attacks able to score with Baroš, Fantiš and Kukec being main threats in Ostrava and Liberec with their great attacking duo Delarge (quick Congolese striker) and Štajner (scorer of 100 career goals) plus Šural scoring 6 goals in 16 games this season.
Both teams are in the top 5 of the overish table. Both teams in good mood, losing just one game during the five spring rounds. The pitch was suffering due to bad weather, but if this game goes on, it will go over 1,5!
Reading - Southampton: you all know, all the stats available speak clearly for over and personally I expect at least three goals and maybe this would be a good O4,5 shot.
Real - Levante: Levante is big defensive side and this is definitely the weakest part of my selection as all other teams involved are overish, but you know - Real at home, hard hard to imagine U1.5.
Barca - Mallorca: two overish sides, Barca at home, no more comments
O1.5 fourfold
Ostrava - Liberec, Reading - Southampton, Real - Levante, Barca - Mallorca
Pays 2.033 in Marathon, good odds in Expekt too
stake 4/5
Ostrava at home with one under in nine matches (3,11 per game), Liberec away with 2/11 (2,72 per game). Four out of five previous meetings ended with 3,5+ goals. Defender Vomáčka is suspended for Ostrava, another regular def Starý is injured. Both Ostrava and Liberec have attacks able to score with Baroš, Fantiš and Kukec being main threats in Ostrava and Liberec with their great attacking duo Delarge (quick Congolese striker) and Štajner (scorer of 100 career goals) plus Šural scoring 6 goals in 16 games this season.
Both teams are in the top 5 of the overish table. Both teams in good mood, losing just one game during the five spring rounds. The pitch was suffering due to bad weather, but if this game goes on, it will go over 1,5!
Reading - Southampton: you all know, all the stats available speak clearly for over and personally I expect at least three goals and maybe this would be a good O4,5 shot.
Real - Levante: Levante is big defensive side and this is definitely the weakest part of my selection as all other teams involved are overish, but you know - Real at home, hard hard to imagine U1.5.
Barca - Mallorca: two overish sides, Barca at home, no more comments
pátek 5. dubna 2013
Another three losers today!
You know what I really hate (except the copying of picks and previews)? I hate especially paid services, which are full of self-presentation and big statements like "Five Winners In a Row Now! Quite usual for our members!" Then when they lose, you accidentally feel like they have also forgotten how to type or that they are no longer sport tipsters, since their tweets and posts are about something completely different.
However, there are two important factors to look for instantly when you have a losing streak: 1, Is it due to my mistake? Was I just lucky previously? 2, Is it "bad luck", just five losers in a row after the twelve winners in a row, adding up great overall profit? In the first case (you never know exactly, like you will never know, which one of your losers was a value pick and which one wasn´t), you have to confess and continue in the process of picking better and better. In the second case: why don´t you want to know, that you are having high ROI with few ups-and-down periods? Betting is no praying. I am happy when my pick wins in the 93rd minute, but that doesn´t mean I don´t want to know, that I was lucky and previous 92 minutes may well were predicted wrongly, which gives me a chance to improve!
I am not the one with long and consistent profit. Posting my picks publically motivates me further and I like mentioning positive results, but I feel even worse when I have a losing day and I am not able to even say the truth.
The truth is that for various reasons this site is now running 0-5. We had a bit of unluck with red card against Lazio, well analyzed, but completely wrongly predicted Tottenham - Basel game, well analysed and predicted double loser in České Budějovice - Příbram and completely wrongly analyzed Slavia - Dukla game - ending with fourth 0:0 in a row and leaving my O1.5 death. I have better picks for next days, I believe, and i am looking forward to having even better ones next week!
However, there are two important factors to look for instantly when you have a losing streak: 1, Is it due to my mistake? Was I just lucky previously? 2, Is it "bad luck", just five losers in a row after the twelve winners in a row, adding up great overall profit? In the first case (you never know exactly, like you will never know, which one of your losers was a value pick and which one wasn´t), you have to confess and continue in the process of picking better and better. In the second case: why don´t you want to know, that you are having high ROI with few ups-and-down periods? Betting is no praying. I am happy when my pick wins in the 93rd minute, but that doesn´t mean I don´t want to know, that I was lucky and previous 92 minutes may well were predicted wrongly, which gives me a chance to improve!
I am not the one with long and consistent profit. Posting my picks publically motivates me further and I like mentioning positive results, but I feel even worse when I have a losing day and I am not able to even say the truth.
The truth is that for various reasons this site is now running 0-5. We had a bit of unluck with red card against Lazio, well analyzed, but completely wrongly predicted Tottenham - Basel game, well analysed and predicted double loser in České Budějovice - Příbram and completely wrongly analyzed Slavia - Dukla game - ending with fourth 0:0 in a row and leaving my O1.5 death. I have better picks for next days, I believe, and i am looking forward to having even better ones next week!
Jablonec - Slovácko pick
Another pick from the Czech top league weekend´s action. Just two matches I am unsure about remains without my prediction and maybe it will stay like this...
Jablonec - Slovácko
04/07, 15:00 CET
Jablonec to win @ 1.75, Marathon
Nothing surprising, nothing extraordinary, but one regular bet not to miss. Logic is pretty simple in this case: Jablonec need to win in their hunt for the top 3 placing and playing at home against Slovácko it won´t be easy, on the other hand they would be surely unsatisfied with one point and it´s hard to imagine Slovácko being better side in this game. H2H and recent form just confirm these thoughts and I think there´s nothing more to say from me, things are pretty simple and my idea is not to speculate whether the probability of home win is 66 % or 72 % or so. This is just a common sense "to win" pick, maybe good double addition to some low-odds value you will find.. Stake 3/5.
Jablonec - Slovácko
04/07, 15:00 CET
Jablonec to win @ 1.75, Marathon
Nothing surprising, nothing extraordinary, but one regular bet not to miss. Logic is pretty simple in this case: Jablonec need to win in their hunt for the top 3 placing and playing at home against Slovácko it won´t be easy, on the other hand they would be surely unsatisfied with one point and it´s hard to imagine Slovácko being better side in this game. H2H and recent form just confirm these thoughts and I think there´s nothing more to say from me, things are pretty simple and my idea is not to speculate whether the probability of home win is 66 % or 72 % or so. This is just a common sense "to win" pick, maybe good double addition to some low-odds value you will find.. Stake 3/5.
čtvrtek 4. dubna 2013
Records & Running picks
Bad dramatic day, which let me hope in two winners, but ended with both bids losing. Tottenham was overshooted by 17-10 with Basel proving much improved level of consistency; 2:2 draw. Benfica got an early goal, but Portuguese side was not the one to surprise negatively - 3:1 win. Lazio with red card and two goals conceded in the final 15 minutes - hard job awaiting in the 2nd leg. Finally my private pick and recommended external preview Chelsea to play under 2,5 with Kazan and Russian side showing the worst appearance in the spring part of the season: 3:1 and Chelsea is turning less and less black horse as Benitez´s chance to win a trophy are raising.
My record is down at 103,26 % of ROI. However, one day is an extremely tiny period in bettor´s life. We have many picks waiting for confirmation by reality, here is a full list put in chronological order:
České Budějovice to draw with Příbram at 3.40, Marathon + BTTS at evens, William Hill
Slavia Prague - Dukla Prague & Baník Ostrava - Slovan liberec O1.5 double @ 1.82, BetVictor
Plzen - Teplice Teplice +1,5 @ 2,10, 12BET
Vysočina Jihlava - Zbrojovka Brno Brno to win @ 3,80, Marathon
Istanbul to host the 2020 Olympics @ 3.00, Paddy Power
All write-ups can be found in the blog´s history.
My record is down at 103,26 % of ROI. However, one day is an extremely tiny period in bettor´s life. We have many picks waiting for confirmation by reality, here is a full list put in chronological order:
České Budějovice to draw with Příbram at 3.40, Marathon + BTTS at evens, William Hill
Slavia Prague - Dukla Prague & Baník Ostrava - Slovan liberec O1.5 double @ 1.82, BetVictor
Plzen - Teplice Teplice +1,5 @ 2,10, 12BET
Vysočina Jihlava - Zbrojovka Brno Brno to win @ 3,80, Marathon
Istanbul to host the 2020 Olympics @ 3.00, Paddy Power
All write-ups can be found in the blog´s history.
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